投資 井上 耕太

世界市場に漂う『陽気』は、果たして、いつまで続くのか？？

今日のテーマは、『世界市場に漂う陽気は、果たして、いつまで続くのか？？』です。

 

 

私に限った話ではなく、

 

 

『米国市場』を起点とした、『世界市場』のリセッション（景気後退）を、

『近い将来、起こる可能性が高い』と予想する人間は多く存在しています。

 

 

昨日の公式ブログでは、

 

 

いよいよ来月（１０月）に始動が迫った『消費増税』を取り上げましたが、

これについても、『タイミングが悪い』と主張する経済学者が大半を占めます。

 

 

にも関わらず、

 

 

皆さんもご存知の通り、『米国市場』『日本市場』共に堅調に推移し、

ここ最近も、『ロジック（理屈）』と逆行する動きを見せ続けています。

 

 

昨日（９月１１日）、

 

 

奇しくも、１８年目の『９.１１』を迎えた米国市場は堅実な動きで、

前日比として『２００ドル超』の上昇を見せ、

NYダウ平均は『２万７０００ドル台』を回復して取引を終えました。

 

 

これを受けて、

 

 

本日（９月１２日）の日本市場も上昇を見せ、日経平均株価は、

前日比『１６１円８５銭』上げ、『２万１,７５９円６１銭』の終値を記録しています。

 

 

一時、

 

 

『２万円台』の大台を割り込むかという基準まで下落していた『日経平均株価』も、

８月、私が夏のバカンスを過ごしている間（笑）、知らないうちに回復していました。

 

 

同様に、

 

 

過去最高値を更新する事で、皮肉にも『警鐘』がなり始めた『米国市場』も、

『NYダウ平均株価』は、とても底堅く『２万７０００ドル台』に乗せて来ました。

 

 

以前の公式ブログでもご紹介しましたが、

 

 

投資家の『リスク回避傾向』が強まり、『信用格付け』の高いものから、

世界の『債券市場』が、軒並み『マイナス利回り』を計上している現在です。

 

 

この状況において、

 

 

『ロジック（理屈）』的には、同時に『起こり得ない』物事が、

実際には『起こり得て（しまって）いる』のが、ここ最近の世界市場なのです。

 

 

『事実』は『小説』よりも奇なり。

 

 

では、

 

 

『理屈』で起こり得ないことが、『現実世界』で起こっているなら、

それを『予測する因子（債券市場の経済指標）』自体が、間違っているのでしょうか？？

 

 

しかし、

 

 

『債券市場』以外にも、『警告音』はなり始めており、

金融界で有名な『マカリー指数』においても、

『リセッション（景気後退）』傾向は示されています。

 

 

同指数は、

 

 

ＰＩＭＣＯ（パシフィック・インベストメント・マネジメント）において、

マネージング・ディレクターを務めた『ポール・マカリー氏』から名付けられました。

 

 

簡単に説明すると、

 

 

民間企業の『設備投資』の先行指標となる、

航空機を除く『非国防資本財（コア資本財）受注』の推移を見れば、

リセッション（景気後退）の指標になり得るという考えに基きます。

 

 

この指標において、

 

 

現在は、２０１７年１１月以降から『下降傾向』の真っ只中にあり、

同指数前年比の『３カ月平均』が、基準値『ゼロ』を下まわった時、

リセッション（景気後退）の可能性が高まると言われています。

 

 

事実、

 

 

過去２０年間で、この基準値（３ヶ月平均：前年比ゼロ）を下回った時期は２度あり、

２００１年（ITバブル崩壊）、２００７年（世界金融危機）と合致する為、深刻です。

 

 

以前、公式ブログでもご紹介した、

 

 

米国債『２年物』『１０年物』の利回り逆転（逆イールド）以上に信憑性があり、

米中貿易戦争の長期化が見込まれる現在は、早晩、同指標も『マイナス圏』に突入すると見られます。

 

 

また、

 

 

『米国市場』が『対岸の火事』という訳では、決してなくて、現在、

『日本市場』自体も、これまでの経済政策の『回答』を求められる時期に来ています。

 

 

２０１３年４月、

 

 

現・安倍・黒田政権により進められることとなった『金融緩和政策』は、

２年以内の『物価上昇目標２％』を実現する事なく、約６年半の歳月を重ねました。

 

 

この期間、

 

 

様々な手（＊金融界の禁じ手を含む。）を講じて『緩和』を進めて来ましたが、

逆行するかのように、国債に限らず、市場の凡ゆる『金利』が低下しています。

 

 

民間金融機関においても、

 

 

有望な『投資先（融資先）』を見出すことが、困難な状況が続いており、

違和感満載のバブルに沸いた『不動産業界』の、不正融資問題等が、その象徴です。

 

 

他にも、

 

 

『金融緩和』を推し進める過程で行われた、民間金融機関からの『国債買入れ』により、

過去最高レベルまで積み上げられた『日銀保有資産』を、今後、どうするかという問題もある。

 

 

繰り返しになりますが、

 

 

現在、市場では『有り得ないこと』が同時並行で起こってしまっており、

その『歪』を解消するタイミングでは、少なからぬ『変動（痛み）』が予想されます。

 

 

その『実態』とは少し異なり、

 

 

穏やかな『陽気』が漂い続ける『米国市場』及び『日本市場』、

その堅調な推移に対して浮かれる事は、明らかに軽率なように感じてしまいます。

 

 

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『金融リテラシーを高めて、具体的に資産形成をしたい！』という方に最適なセミナーを、

今月は神戸・三ノ宮９月２７日（木）、大阪・梅田９月２８日（金）の日程で開催します。

 

 

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＊＊＊＊セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください＊＊＊＊

——————————————————————–

 

 

『具体的なアクション』を起こすことでのみ、

人生は、本当に好転していくものだと思います。

 

 

ぜひ勇気を持って、新たな一歩を踏み出してみてください。

皆さんに、直接お会い出来るのを楽しみにしております。

 

 

セミナーを受講する間でもなく、

 

 

『今すぐ、具体的に資産形成をスタートしたい！』という方は、

ぜひ勇気を持って『お金のセッション』を受講してみてください。

 

 

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＊＊＊＊『お金のセッション』ご予約はこちらをクリック＊＊＊＊

——————————————————————–

 

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代表　井上耕太

321 件のコメント

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    ABOUTこの記事をかいた人

    井上 耕太

    ・1984年4月21日生まれ。
    　岡山県津山市 出身。国立 神戸大学 卒業。

    •『人生を変えるお金のセッション』★
    　海外投資を活用した、セミリタイアライフプランを提供します。

    •資格：CFP®（ファイナンシャルプランナー国際ライセンス）
    　　　１級ファイナンシャルプランニング技能士（国家資格）

    •趣味：野球、走ること、美味しいランチ巡り、海外一人旅

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