今日のテーマは、『世界市場に漂う陽気は、果たして、いつまで続くのか??』です。
私に限った話ではなく、
『米国市場』を起点とした、『世界市場』のリセッション(景気後退)を、
『近い将来、起こる可能性が高い』と予想する人間は多く存在しています。
昨日の公式ブログでは、
いよいよ来月(10月)に始動が迫った『消費増税』を取り上げましたが、
これについても、『タイミングが悪い』と主張する経済学者が大半を占めます。
にも関わらず、
皆さんもご存知の通り、『米国市場』『日本市場』共に堅調に推移し、
ここ最近も、『ロジック(理屈)』と逆行する動きを見せ続けています。
昨日(9月11日)、
奇しくも、18年目の『9.11』を迎えた米国市場は堅実な動きで、
前日比として『200ドル超』の上昇を見せ、
NYダウ平均は『2万7000ドル台』を回復して取引を終えました。
これを受けて、
本日(9月12日)の日本市場も上昇を見せ、日経平均株価は、
前日比『161円85銭』上げ、『2万1,759円61銭』の終値を記録しています。
一時、
『2万円台』の大台を割り込むかという基準まで下落していた『日経平均株価』も、
8月、私が夏のバカンスを過ごしている間(笑)、知らないうちに回復していました。
同様に、
過去最高値を更新する事で、皮肉にも『警鐘』がなり始めた『米国市場』も、
『NYダウ平均株価』は、とても底堅く『2万7000ドル台』に乗せて来ました。
以前の公式ブログでもご紹介しましたが、
投資家の『リスク回避傾向』が強まり、『信用格付け』の高いものから、
世界の『債券市場』が、軒並み『マイナス利回り』を計上している現在です。
この状況において、
『ロジック(理屈)』的には、同時に『起こり得ない』物事が、
実際には『起こり得て(しまって)いる』のが、ここ最近の世界市場なのです。
『事実』は『小説』よりも奇なり。
では、
『理屈』で起こり得ないことが、『現実世界』で起こっているなら、
それを『予測する因子(債券市場の経済指標)』自体が、間違っているのでしょうか??
しかし、
『債券市場』以外にも、『警告音』はなり始めており、
金融界で有名な『マカリー指数』においても、
『リセッション(景気後退)』傾向は示されています。
同指数は、
PIMCO(パシフィック・インベストメント・マネジメント)において、
マネージング・ディレクターを務めた『ポール・マカリー氏』から名付けられました。
簡単に説明すると、
民間企業の『設備投資』の先行指標となる、
航空機を除く『非国防資本財(コア資本財)受注』の推移を見れば、
リセッション(景気後退)の指標になり得るという考えに基きます。
この指標において、
現在は、2017年11月以降から『下降傾向』の真っ只中にあり、
同指数前年比の『3カ月平均』が、基準値『ゼロ』を下まわった時、
リセッション(景気後退)の可能性が高まると言われています。
事実、
過去20年間で、この基準値(3ヶ月平均:前年比ゼロ)を下回った時期は2度あり、
2001年(ITバブル崩壊)、2007年(世界金融危機)と合致する為、深刻です。
以前、公式ブログでもご紹介した、
米国債『2年物』『10年物』の利回り逆転(逆イールド)以上に信憑性があり、
米中貿易戦争の長期化が見込まれる現在は、早晩、同指標も『マイナス圏』に突入すると見られます。
また、
『米国市場』が『対岸の火事』という訳では、決してなくて、現在、
『日本市場』自体も、これまでの経済政策の『回答』を求められる時期に来ています。
2013年4月、
現・安倍・黒田政権により進められることとなった『金融緩和政策』は、
2年以内の『物価上昇目標2%』を実現する事なく、約6年半の歳月を重ねました。
この期間、
様々な手(*金融界の禁じ手を含む。)を講じて『緩和』を進めて来ましたが、
逆行するかのように、国債に限らず、市場の凡ゆる『金利』が低下しています。
民間金融機関においても、
有望な『投資先(融資先)』を見出すことが、困難な状況が続いており、
違和感満載のバブルに沸いた『不動産業界』の、不正融資問題等が、その象徴です。
他にも、
『金融緩和』を推し進める過程で行われた、民間金融機関からの『国債買入れ』により、
過去最高レベルまで積み上げられた『日銀保有資産』を、今後、どうするかという問題もある。
繰り返しになりますが、
現在、市場では『有り得ないこと』が同時並行で起こってしまっており、
その『歪』を解消するタイミングでは、少なからぬ『変動(痛み)』が予想されます。
その『実態』とは少し異なり、
穏やかな『陽気』が漂い続ける『米国市場』及び『日本市場』、
その堅調な推移に対して浮かれる事は、明らかに軽率なように感じてしまいます。
——————————————————————–
■1組限定!■9月17日(火)東京出張セッション開催決定!
*『資産形成』にご興味持たれる方は、ぜひ有効活用頂けたら幸いです。
——————————————————————–
『金融リテラシーを高めて、具体的に資産形成をしたい!』という方に最適なセミナーを、
今月は神戸・三ノ宮9月27日(木)、大阪・梅田9月28日(金)の日程で開催します。
——————————————————————–
■2019年9月26日(木)開催!将来のお金の不安が2時間で消えるセミナーin神戸・三ノ宮■
****セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください****
■2019年9月27日(金)開催!将来のお金の不安が2時間で消えるセミナーin大阪・梅田■
****セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください****
——————————————————————–
『具体的なアクション』を起こすことでのみ、
人生は、本当に好転していくものだと思います。
ぜひ勇気を持って、新たな一歩を踏み出してみてください。
皆さんに、直接お会い出来るのを楽しみにしております。
セミナーを受講する間でもなく、
『今すぐ、具体的に資産形成をスタートしたい!』という方は、
ぜひ勇気を持って『お金のセッション』を受講してみてください。
——————————————————————–
****プライベートセッションご案内はこちらをクリック****
****『お金のセッション』ご予約はこちらをクリック****
——————————————————————–
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