世界市場に漂う『陽気』は、果たして、いつまで続くのか??

今日のテーマは、『世界市場に漂う陽気は、果たして、いつまで続くのか??』です。

 

 

私に限った話ではなく、

 

 

『米国市場』を起点とした、『世界市場』のリセッション(景気後退)を、

『近い将来、起こる可能性が高い』と予想する人間は多く存在しています。

 

 

昨日の公式ブログでは、

 

 

いよいよ来月(10月)に始動が迫った『消費増税』を取り上げましたが、

これについても、『タイミングが悪い』と主張する経済学者が大半を占めます。

 

 

にも関わらず、

 

 

皆さんもご存知の通り、『米国市場』『日本市場』共に堅調に推移し、

ここ最近も、『ロジック(理屈)』と逆行する動きを見せ続けています。

 

 

昨日(9月11日)、

 

 

奇しくも、18年目の『9.11』を迎えた米国市場は堅実な動きで、

前日比として『200ドル超』の上昇を見せ、

NYダウ平均は『2万7000ドル台』を回復して取引を終えました。

 

 

これを受けて、

 

 

本日(9月12日)の日本市場も上昇を見せ、日経平均株価は、

前日比『161円85銭』上げ、『2万1,759円61銭』の終値を記録しています。

 

 

一時、

 

 

『2万円台』の大台を割り込むかという基準まで下落していた『日経平均株価』も、

8月、私が夏のバカンスを過ごしている間(笑)、知らないうちに回復していました。

 

 

同様に、

 

 

過去最高値を更新する事で、皮肉にも『警鐘』がなり始めた『米国市場』も、

『NYダウ平均株価』は、とても底堅く『2万7000ドル台』に乗せて来ました。

 

 

以前の公式ブログでもご紹介しましたが、

 

 

投資家の『リスク回避傾向』が強まり、『信用格付け』の高いものから、

世界の『債券市場』が、軒並み『マイナス利回り』を計上している現在です。

 

 

この状況において、

 

 

『ロジック(理屈)』的には、同時に『起こり得ない』物事が、

実際には『起こり得て(しまって)いる』のが、ここ最近の世界市場なのです。

 

 

『事実』は『小説』よりも奇なり。

 

 

では、

 

 

『理屈』で起こり得ないことが、『現実世界』で起こっているなら、

それを『予測する因子(債券市場の経済指標)』自体が、間違っているのでしょうか??

 

 

しかし、

 

 

『債券市場』以外にも、『警告音』はなり始めており、

金融界で有名な『マカリー指数』においても、

『リセッション(景気後退)』傾向は示されています。

 

 

同指数は、

 

 

PIMCO(パシフィック・インベストメント・マネジメント)において、

マネージング・ディレクターを務めた『ポール・マカリー氏』から名付けられました。

 

 

簡単に説明すると、

 

 

民間企業の『設備投資』の先行指標となる、

航空機を除く『非国防資本財(コア資本財)受注』の推移を見れば、

リセッション(景気後退)の指標になり得るという考えに基きます。

 

 

この指標において、

 

 

現在は、2017年11月以降から『下降傾向』の真っ只中にあり、

同指数前年比の『3カ月平均』が、基準値『ゼロ』を下まわった時、

リセッション(景気後退)の可能性が高まると言われています。

 

 

事実、

 

 

過去20年間で、この基準値(3ヶ月平均:前年比ゼロ)を下回った時期は2度あり、

2001年(ITバブル崩壊)、2007年(世界金融危機)と合致する為、深刻です。

 

 

以前、公式ブログでもご紹介した、

 

 

米国債『2年物』『10年物』の利回り逆転(逆イールド)以上に信憑性があり、

米中貿易戦争の長期化が見込まれる現在は、早晩、同指標も『マイナス圏』に突入すると見られます。

 

 

また、

 

 

『米国市場』が『対岸の火事』という訳では、決してなくて、現在、

『日本市場』自体も、これまでの経済政策の『回答』を求められる時期に来ています。

 

 

2013年4月、

 

 

現・安倍・黒田政権により進められることとなった『金融緩和政策』は、

2年以内の『物価上昇目標2%』を実現する事なく、約6年半の歳月を重ねました。

 

 

この期間、

 

 

様々な手(*金融界の禁じ手を含む。)を講じて『緩和』を進めて来ましたが、

逆行するかのように、国債に限らず、市場の凡ゆる『金利』が低下しています。

 

 

民間金融機関においても、

 

 

有望な『投資先(融資先)』を見出すことが、困難な状況が続いており、

違和感満載のバブルに沸いた『不動産業界』の、不正融資問題等が、その象徴です。

 

 

他にも、

 

 

『金融緩和』を推し進める過程で行われた、民間金融機関からの『国債買入れ』により、

過去最高レベルまで積み上げられた『日銀保有資産』を、今後、どうするかという問題もある。

 

 

繰り返しになりますが、

 

 

現在、市場では『有り得ないこと』が同時並行で起こってしまっており、

その『歪』を解消するタイミングでは、少なからぬ『変動(痛み)』が予想されます。

 

 

その『実態』とは少し異なり、

 

 

穏やかな『陽気』が漂い続ける『米国市場』及び『日本市場』、

その堅調な推移に対して浮かれる事は、明らかに軽率なように感じてしまいます。

 

 

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『具体的なアクション』を起こすことでのみ、

人生は、本当に好転していくものだと思います。

 

 

ぜひ勇気を持って、新たな一歩を踏み出してみてください。

皆さんに、直接お会い出来るのを楽しみにしております。

 

 

セミナーを受講する間でもなく、

 

 

『今すぐ、具体的に資産形成をスタートしたい!』という方は、

ぜひ勇気を持って『お金のセッション』を受講してみてください。

 

 

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井上耕太事務所

代表 井上耕太

566 件のコメント

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  • ABOUTこの記事をかいた人

    井上 耕太

    ・1984年4月21日生まれ。
     岡山県津山市 出身。国立 神戸大学 卒業。

    •『人生を変えるお金のセッション』★
     海外投資を活用した、セミリタイアライフプランを提供します。

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       1級ファイナンシャルプランニング技能士(国家資格)

    •趣味:野球、走ること、美味しいランチ巡り、海外一人旅

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    •使命:自らの発信により、『経済的自由人』を100万人規模で輩出する。

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