投資 井上 耕太

中国の『資金流出抑制政策』は、果たして『対岸の火事』なのか？？

今日のテーマは、『中国の資金流出抑制政策は、果たして対岸の火事なのか？？』です。

 

 

つくづく、『日本』は平和な国だなと思います（笑）

 

 

日々、『世界』は転換期を迎えるイベントが起こり続けていますが、

日本の報道で取り上げられる事は殆どなく、街には『日常』が流れます。

 

 

この辺り、マス・メディアを見れば一目瞭然で、

 

 

CNN、BBCがトップニュースで伝えているような報道も、

同日、日本の報道機関は全く伝える事なく、芸能ゴシップを流していたりします。

 

 

個人的に不思議なのが、

 

 

『情報を伝える』という役割のアナウンサーが、何故か芸能人扱いされて、

『プライベート』なイベントを、公共の電波を使って報道するということ。

 

 

海外諸国から見れば、感覚的に理解できない『ガラパゴスの七不思議』ですね。

 

 

それで、

 

 

個人的には、大きな『ターニング・ポイント』になり得ると感じたのですが、

こちらも、本国・日本では全く注目されない報道が、先月末に出て来ました。

 

 

『中国政府　海外への資金流出抑制の為、新規制導入』

 

 

今年に入り、

 

 

想定外に長期化した『米中貿易戦争』が絶賛開催中の同国ですが、

先月、『１米ドル＝７元台』を容認した事を『きっかけ』として、

中国国内では、『人民元』の海外流出の動きが加速していました。

 

 

ご存知の方もいらっしゃると思いますが、

 

 

『海外流出』と言えど、中国本土からの『現金持出し』は厳しく制限されており、

多額の『キャッシュ（現金）』をそのまま、のこのこ持ち出す事は、ほぼ不可能です。

 

 

１０年も経過しない程前までは、

 

 

深圳（シンセン）付近には、陸路で香港への現金輸送を請け負う、

『運び屋』なる職業も存在していたようですが、規制強化に伴い、

『リスク・ベネフィット』の観点から旨味がなくなり消滅しました。

 

 

当然、

 

 

金融機関からの『海外送金』に対しても、何の理由もなく、

『所在』を移すだけであれば、『キャピタル・フライト』と見做されてしまいます。

 

 

元々、

 

 

実質的な一党独裁により、政府が『貨幣価値』を操作しやすい中国においては、

富裕層を中心に、『保有資産（人民元）』を『海外逃避』させる動きが盛んでした。

 

 

少し考えてみれば分かりますが、

 

 

『貨幣価値』が下落するという事は、対外的に『保有資産』の下落と直結し、

仮に、『１０％』下落すれば、資産が『１０％』吹き飛んだことになります。

 

 

この状況を、

 

 

黙って放任している『人（富裕層）』など存在するはずがなく、

自国通貨の『価値』が比較的保たれている間に、

『対外資産（貨幣・不動産その他）』に転換する方が正常です。

 

 

数年前も、

 

 

２０１５年から２０１６年にかけて、『人民元ショック』は起こりましたが、

この時から、中国国民の感覚は、よりセンシティブになったように感じます。

 

 

そして、

 

 

前述の通り、『米中貿易戦争』の長期化・激化に伴い、輸出産業への影響を考慮して、

輸出関連企業に、少しでも有利に働くよう、中国政府は『元安政策』を進めています。

 

 

『１米ドル＝７元台』は、約１１年ぶりの安値であり、

この為替水準は、『政府容認』無くしては、決して、到達し得ない値です。

 

 

しかし、

 

 

こちらも前述させて頂きましたが、『元安誘導』は国民には嫌われますから、

そのまま放置し、この状況が継続すれば、国内資産の『海外流出』が加速します。

 

 

一般的に、

 

 

近年、CRSの新基準が作成され、参加国間で情報共有されると言えど、やはり、

『国外』に出てしまった資金に対しては、国家として捕捉しにくいのが現実です。

 

 

そうなれば、

 

 

『国家』サイドからの視点で、進めるべきは『海外流出』を抑制であり、

今回、実際に、中国ではかなり厳格な『抑制政策』が導入される事となりました。

 

 

具体的に、

 

 

『金融機関』に対して行われたのが、それ自体を抑制させる直結策で、

『海外送金額』『外貨売却』の数字が、『全国平均値』から上回ると、

金融機関の『信用評価』を切り下げるという強硬策です。

 

 

更に、

 

 

この制度導入により『低評価』を付けられた金融機関は、

今後、通常業務に『制限』をかけられる可能性すら出て来ました。

 

 

また、

 

 

上記制度は『絶対値』としての基準は定められておらず、

『全国平均値』と比較されることから、お互いに牽制し合い、

今後、ますます『平均値』が下がることが予想されますよね。

 

 

政府サイドから考えれば、とても『上手い』基準設定だと思います。

 

 

更に、

 

 

海外留学中の子息に『仕送り』を送金する場合においても、

『入学許可証』『相手先の在職証明』等の提出を求めるという徹底ぶりです。

 

 

加えて、

 

 

これまで、『海外送金』する名目上の理由として最適であった、

『不動産』『保険商品』の購入目的の海外送金は、今回、認められなくなりました。

 

 

『いよいよ』という感じですね。

 

 

他業種においては、

 

 

『不動産企業』についても、『外貨調達制限』をかけており、

『外債発行』による調達資金の使途としては、償還まで１年未満の『超短期債券』に限ります。

 

 

これについては、

 

 

更に厳格化が見込まれていて、上記基準を満たす場合の『外債発行』も、

今後、借換え以外は『調達不可』とする方向性が、既に示されています。

 

 

これにより、

 

 

中国は、『国民』による資産の『海外流出』が実質不可能に近い形になるので、

為替についても、今までより更に、政府コントロールが効きやすくなりますね。

 

 

また、

 

 

『日本』ほどの債務を積み上げていないながらも、

国民資産は、国内で『管理下』に置きやすくなり、『一石二鳥』といった所でしょうか。

 

 

ここまで見て来て、

 

 

もしも、『中国人は大変やな〜』と感じられる方がいらっしゃれば、

相当レベルの『幸せ者（＊ポジティブな意味では無い。）』と感じてしまいます。

 

 

理由は違えど、

 

 

日本国内においても、資産の『海外流出抑制』の動きは進みつつあり、

想像以上に近い将来、『ターニング・ポイント』を迎える事が予想されるからです。

 

 

隣国で起きている事を『他人事（ひとごと）』とは思わず、

他者に学ぶ姿勢で、謙虚に、センシティブに『資産形成』を進めて頂けたら幸いです。

 

 

——————————————————————–

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＊『資産形成』にご興味持たれる方は、ぜひ有効活用頂けたら幸いです。

——————————————————————–

 

 

『金融リテラシーを高めて、具体的に資産形成をしたい！』という方に最適なセミナーを、

今月は神戸・三ノ宮９月２７日（木）、大阪・梅田９月２８日（金）の日程で開催します。

 

 

——————————————————————–

■２０１９年９月２６日（木）開催！将来のお金の不安が2時間で消えるセミナーin神戸・三ノ宮■

＊＊＊＊セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください＊＊＊＊

 

■２０１９年９月２７日（金）開催！将来のお金の不安が2時間で消えるセミナーin大阪・梅田■

＊＊＊＊セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください＊＊＊＊

——————————————————————–

 

 

『具体的なアクション』を起こすことでのみ、

人生は、本当に好転していくものだと思います。

 

 

ぜひ勇気を持って、新たな一歩を踏み出してみてください。

皆さんに、直接お会い出来るのを楽しみにしております。

 

 

セミナーを受講する間でもなく、

 

 

『今すぐ、具体的に資産形成をスタートしたい！』という方は、

ぜひ勇気を持って『お金のセッション』を受講してみてください。

 

 

——————————————————————–

＊＊＊＊プライベートセッションご案内はこちらをクリック＊＊＊＊

 

＊＊＊＊『お金のセッション』ご予約はこちらをクリック＊＊＊＊

——————————————————————–

 

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代表　井上耕太

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