この週末のblogでは、『国』も『企業』も、
『社会保障』に関する財源が苦しい、という話をしました。
この傾向、『暫くの間』は続きます。
その原因は、
①日本の平均寿命が飛躍的に延びたこと。
②日本の人口ピラミッドが崩れてること。
以上の2点です。
特に『②』です。
今、日本の人口は変遷期を迎えています。
2050年頃の日本の人口は、
9000万人程度になるとの試算もあります。
日本の『パイ』はどんどん縮まる。
でもこれ、別に悲観的なことではありません。
もともと日本は、先進国にも関わらず、
狭い国土に多くの人が居すぎたんです。
ヨーロッパなんかと比べたらわかります。
日本と国土が同等のフランスやドイツも、
その人口は6000~8000万人程度。
仮に日本が9000万人になったとしても、
まだまだこれらの国に市場規模は勝ってます。
たまに、日本の人口減少を、
『世界の終わり』みたいに騒ぎ立てる人がいます。
『今の出生率なら、2100年に日本の人口が0になる!』と。
、、、、なるかっ!!(笑)
どうせみんな、セックスするやろ!!(笑)
昔、猿人は4足歩行してました。
それが、徐々に上体を起こしてきて、
遂には立ち上がって2足歩行し始めました。
そのペースのままいったら、
僕たちはブリッジで歩いてないとおかしいそうです。
そんな奴、おらん(笑)
だから『ずっとこのままいったら』とか、無い。
今の日本は、新たな『適正人数』に向けての変遷期です。
そこまでいったら、
また綺麗な人口ピラミッドに戻ります。
でも、この『移行期』に『痛み』が伴うのは確か。
背景となる情報・データが変わってしまい、
今までの既存のルールが通用しなくなるからです。
『年金』『健康保険』を始めとする『社会保障』は、
本人世代の積立てプラス、現役世代の拠出金により、
成立している制度です。
・高齢者:『給付』が主。『支払い』は少ない。
・現役世代:『支払い』が主。『給付』は少ない。
圧倒的に『現役世代』が多いことで成り立つ制度ですが、
これから暫くの間は、このバランスが崩れる。
2100年頃までは、続くんちゃうかな??
だから、僕達が生きる時代に関しては、
『社会保障』を『国』や『企業』に期待するのはナンセンス。
今までの『ルール』や『常識』も既に変わってます。
『親の世代』の言うこと聞いてる場合でもない。
また、当の『親の世代』も少し『痛手』食うしね。
『国』、『企業』が悪い言うてるんでは、決して無いです。
制度を作った当時では予想できなかった、
それくらいドラスティックな変化が始まってるということ。
人のせいにするのは簡単です。
『国がわるい!』
『会社がわるい!』
でも、まったく同じ状況の人でも、
ちゃんと準備して『経済的自立』してる人いますよね??
だったら、あなたも出来たんじゃない??
出来なかったのは、僕から言わせれば、
本人の『怠惰』以外の何物でもありません。
『風向き』『潮流』を見ないで、
ただ何も考えずにオールを漕ぐことを、
『一生懸命』と勘違いしていた結果です。
気付いたら、井上耕太に聞きに来てください(^_^)★
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