投資 井上 耕太

『欧州』で展開される『マイナス金利：深掘り』という迷走。

今日のテーマは、『欧州で展開されるマイナス金利：深掘りという迷走』です。

 

 

SNSで繋がっている方々には情報発信していますが、昨日から東京に来ています。

 

 

いくつか仕事が重なった為なのですが、

１つは、昨年から指導した新規ビジネスの定期ミーティングという用事。

 

 

ただ、

 

 

それだけで帰阪してしまっては、せっかくの上京が勿体ない為、

１年半ぶりの東京出張セッションと、今夜は主催ビジネスセミナーを開催します。

 

 

幸い、天候にも、気候的にも恵まれて、とても心地良い時間を過ごしています。

 

 

現在、

 

 

大阪を拠点にファイナンシャル・プランナー活動をしていますが、

将来的には、拠点を『東京』に移すことも選択肢として考えています。

 

 

さて、

 

 

一週間ほど前の報道になりますが、『ECB（欧州中央銀行）』が、

３年半ぶりの『政策金利の利下げ』を発表し、世間を驚かせました。

 

 

昨年末、

 

 

２０１８年に終了した『量的金融緩和策』を早々に再開し、

今年（２０１９年）１１月１日からは、『金融緩和政策』に急遽転じます。

 

 

具体的には、

 

 

『月間２００億ユーロ（約２兆４０００億円）』という金額を、

『国債購入』という形で、今後、市中に供給し続ける方針です。

 

 

これを受けて、

 

 

『中銀預金金利（ＥＵ加盟国の民間銀行が中央銀行に預け入れる際の金利）』を、

現行『▲（マイナス）０・４％』から、『▲０・５％』へと変更する方針です。

 

 

背景としては、

 

 

欧州内でも停滞を見せる『物価』を、早期に上昇に転じさせる目的があり、

ECB（欧州中央銀行）ドラギ総裁の意向が、強く反映される形で実現しました。

 

 

実際、

 

 

同日９月１２日にECB（欧州中央銀行）から公表された『経済・物価見通し』では、

ユーロ圏物価上昇率は、『２０１９年：１.２%』『２０２０年：１.０%』と低調です。

 

 

この値は、

 

 

２０１８年の『１.８%』から低下を見せており、

今年６月時点公表の『今後の見通し』からも『下方修正』されたものとなります。

 

 

また、

 

 

『実質成長率』についても、２０１８年に記録した『１.９%』から低下し、

『２０１９年：１.１%』『２０２０年：１.２%』との予測がされています。

 

 

これまで、

 

 

ECB・ドラギ総裁は、前回７月の理事会後記者会見で、

「（景気減速の対抗策として）あらゆる政策手法を活用する用意がある』と発言していました。

 

 

この発言も、

 

 

今から考えれば、『政策金利の引下げ』実行に向けた『布石』であり、

自らの発言に責任を持つ為、今回、スピーディーに決断・行動したと言えます。

 

 

しかし、

 

 

今回の決定（政策金利の利下げ）を巡っては、加盟国間で評価が割れており、

経済健全国の『ドイツ』『フランス』及び『エストニア』といった国からは、

『時期尚早』との見方から、反対の声が挙がっています。

 

 

過去振り返っても、

 

 

ＥＣＢ総裁支持の法案が決定後、これだけ『反対』意見が出るのは前代未聞であり、

上記国の中央銀行総裁は、『追加緩和』に強い『異議』を唱えたと言われています。

 

 

確かに、

 

 

『米中貿易戦争』を巡る、世界経済の見通し不透明感がここにも影響しており、

ドイツ・フランス始めとした『輸出国』にも、影響を与えている事は事実です。

 

 

公式ブログでは情報発信し続けてい通り、

 

 

『世界市場』は、（数字上の）その堅調な推移とは裏腹に、

『リスク』を孕み続けながら、『パーティー』を開催している最中のように見えます。

 

 

しかし、

 

 

このタイミングでの『追加緩和』に伴う『政策金利の利下げ』には、

それ以上に『深い読み』は見られず、今、弾を打ってしまうことで、

今後の『リセッション（景気後退）』時期を前に、万策尽きる恐れもあります。

 

 

欧州だけでなく、

 

 

米国、日本始め、世界においても、『金融緩和』とそれに伴う『政策金利下げ』は、

『経済浮揚策』の常套手段ですが、安易に乱発してしまったら依存を強める『劇薬』です。

 

 

何より、

 

 

『明確な目的』を持たないまま、本来は有効とされる『弾』を打つ事は、

もしも、『まったく効果を生まない』という結果が出た際の、ダメージが大き過ぎる。

 

 

実際、

 

 

今回の『追加緩和』発動は、その『最悪の結果』を引き起こす恐れがあり、

もしもそうなった時、ECBが『次の一手』を考えているとは、想像し難い。

 

 

効果不発の際、

 

 

『発行額の３分の１まで』と規定されている『国債買取り上限』を撤廃し、

安易に『買取上限』を引き上げる事が、次なる『最悪の選択』と言えます。

 

 

このような、

 

 

『最悪のファイナンス』が通用するのは、『基軸通貨』の権限を持つ米国のみで、

欧州までもがその『愚策』を実行し始めると、世界経済は混迷を極めていきます。

 

 

約一週間前、

 

 

市場を賑わせた、ECBの『金融緩和』と『政策金利：利下げ』ですが、

経済政策的には、『迷走』と表現せざるを得ない決定かも知れません。

 

 

混沌としてきた世界経済、これからも日々、注視し続ける事が必要です。

 

 

『金融リテラシーを高めて、具体的に資産形成をしたい！』という方に最適なセミナーを、

今月は神戸・三ノ宮９月２７日（木）、大阪・梅田９月２８日（金）の日程で開催します。

 

 

——————————————————————–

■２０１９年９月２６日（木）開催！将来のお金の不安が2時間で消えるセミナーin神戸・三ノ宮■

＊＊＊＊セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください＊＊＊＊

 

■２０１９年９月２７日（金）開催！将来のお金の不安が2時間で消えるセミナーin大阪・梅田■

＊＊＊＊セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください＊＊＊＊

——————————————————————–

 

 

『具体的なアクション』を起こすことでのみ、

人生は、本当に好転していくものだと思います。

 

 

ぜひ勇気を持って、新たな一歩を踏み出してみてください。

皆さんに、直接お会い出来るのを楽しみにしております。

 

 

セミナーを受講する間でもなく、

 

 

『今すぐ、具体的に資産形成をスタートしたい！』という方は、

ぜひ勇気を持って『お金のセッション』を受講してみてください。

 

 

——————————————————————–

＊＊＊＊プライベートセッションご案内はこちらをクリック＊＊＊＊

 

＊＊＊＊『お金のセッション』ご予約はこちらをクリック＊＊＊＊

——————————————————————–

 

井上耕太事務所

代表　井上耕太

1,247 件のコメント

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