今日のテーマは、『消費増税に伴う家計負担軽減対策は、正気の沙汰か??』です。
2019年10月、
兼ねてより、私が、公式ブログで展開してきた話が見事に外れ(笑)、
当初の予定通り、『消費増税10%』がようやく実現しそうですね。
未だに、
誰も全容把握していないであろう、『軽減税率』という難解な制度然り、
キャッシュレス決済の『ポイント還元』等、現場での課題はありますが、
強硬策としてスタートし、動きながら対応していく形になりそうです。
ここまで、
『リーマン(サブプライム)ショック級経済危機』の到来は無いものの、
私は、『何かしらの理由』を付けて、消費増税は『再々延期』されると見ていました。
何故なら、
今回のタイミングがどうこうという話ではなく、
『消費増税』を断行したタイミングでは、少なからず『経済減速』が見られるからです。
ご存知の通り、
官公庁やエコノミストから示される、様々な『経済指標・統計』は、
時の政府、中央銀行総裁の『成績表』として評価されることになります。
当然、
この『成績表』が悪化して喜ぶ『お役人』はいませんから、
何とか、自身の『ターン(任期)』では、ネガティブイベントを回避しようとする。
勿論、
今回、『消費増税』しようが・しまいが、日本の家計は『火の車』ですが、
『何もしない』という決断を下すという事は、財政健全化の『放棄』を意味します。
それでも、
『100年後の日本』を考えて、政治に携わる崇高な人物などはいませんから、
最終的には、『ババ』を引くことを、どうにかして回避すると考えていました。
いや、『負け』を認めます。
完全に、予想が外れました。
ただ、今回、それでも『消費増税』が押し進められたという事は、
私たちが想像する以上に、日本経済が『佳境』に入っているという事かも知れません。
昨日の公式ブログでは、
お隣の経済大国・中国における『資産海外流出抑制策』をご紹介しましたが、
日本も全く『他人事(ひとごと)』ではなく、同様の事態に陥っているからです。
それで、
『消費増税10%』が決定稿なのは『善し』として、
メディア報道を見ていると、どうしても、私は疑問を持ってしまう点があります。
仮に、
現在のスピードでの『経済活動』が維持されたと仮定した場合、
消費税『1%』の増税で、国民負担は『2.87兆円』増加すると言われています。
今回の場合、
『消費税8%→10%』と、増税分は『2%』ですから、
単純に、上記の数字を2倍すると『約5.7兆円』の国民負担が増加する事になります。
しかし、
今回は、前述の『軽減税率』なる制度が食料品に適用されますから、
この分野における税率を『8%』に据え置くことで、『1.1兆円』は軽減されます。
対して、
嗜好品である『たばこ税』や、『所得税』は増加しますから、
その増加分『0.6兆円』を加算すると、国民負担は『5.2兆円』の増加になる。
そこで、
それを還元しようと『幼児教育無償化』『社会保障の充実』が掲げられていて、
私たちには、『日本国民』全体として、『3.2兆円』の恩恵が受けられるようです。
視点が『右往左往』していて、途中から見失いますね(笑)
要は、
日本国の『財政健全化』の為、この度『消費増税』する訳ですが、
それにより増加した『国民負担』については、『順次、還元しますよ』という話。
確かに、
この『一点』を、極小の視野で見れば『正しい』ように感じますが、
わざわざ増加させた『税負担』を、『還元』する意味などあるのでしょうか??
公式ブログ・コア読者の皆さんは熟知されているように、
『国家』としての日本の経済状況は、年々、悪化の一途を辿り、
『累積債務(国債・地方債)』は『GDP比:200%』超という異次元状態です。
この基準は、
『個人レベル』で考えても、返済不能なことが自明であるように、
『国家レベル』においても、将来的に、返済できる可能性は、殆ど有りません。
表現如何は別として、
マスメディアも『国民一人当たり約880万円の借金』と喧伝している事から、
国民なら誰しも、『何かしら、ヤバイらしい』という事は薄々気付いていますよね。
その状況にも関わらず、
我らが『日本国』は、毎年、新たに新発国債を積み上げており、
今度は、誰も引きたがらないであろう『究極のババ』が、後ろに残っているのです。
話を戻すと、
今回、『消費増税』が断行される理由は『財政健全化』であり、
要は、国家の年間収支にあたる『プライマリー・バランス』の健全化です。
更に噛み砕くと、
現在の『日本国』は、『借金体質』が染み付いたどうしようもない状況なので、
先ずは、『単年会計』が少しでも改善されるよう、『収入(税収)』を上げよう、と。
にも関わらず、
国民のご機嫌取り宜しく、『家計負担軽減対策』などしていては、
そもそもの『目的』が全く遂行される事なく、『痛み』だけが増加する事になります。
前述の『累積債務』は、
現時点で『1000兆円』を超える、想像すら絶する巨大な数字ですが、
生温い増税により増加した『2兆円』程度の税収では、全く、返済計画など立ちません。
古今東西、
時代が大きく変わる『転換期』において、『痛み』は、少なからず必ず生じます。
しかし、
それを、消炎鎮痛剤のような『対症療法(軽減対策)』で紛らわしていたら、
最重要項目である、『根本治療(財政健全化)』など達成できるはずがありません。
勿論、
私も日本国民(居住者)として、税負担が軽いに越したことは無いのですが、
より俯瞰して『日本全体』を長期的に見た時、より大切なものがあるように感じます。
『Xデー(経済的有事)』は、近い将来、必ず来ます。
それに対して、その場凌ぎの方法で逃げ続けるのではなく、
真正面から状況を見据えて、具体的対策を講じていくことが『正解』だと考えます。
——————————————————————–
■1組限定!■9月17日(火)東京出張セッション開催決定!
*『資産形成』にご興味持たれる方は、ぜひ有効活用頂けたら幸いです。
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『金融リテラシーを高めて、具体的に資産形成をしたい!』という方に最適なセミナーを、
今月は神戸・三ノ宮9月27日(木)、大阪・梅田9月28日(金)の日程で開催します。
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****セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください****
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——————————————————————–
『具体的なアクション』を起こすことでのみ、
人生は、本当に好転していくものだと思います。
ぜひ勇気を持って、新たな一歩を踏み出してみてください。
皆さんに、直接お会い出来るのを楽しみにしております。
セミナーを受講する間でもなく、
『今すぐ、具体的に資産形成をスタートしたい!』という方は、
ぜひ勇気を持って『お金のセッション』を受講してみてください。
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