今日のテーマは、『影を潜めた鯨は、今後、どう生き延びるのか??』です。
昨日の公式ブログでは、
『あなたは、人生最大のリスクの備えていますか??』と題して、
『公的年金』に頼ったライフ・プランニングの『リスク』についてご紹介しました。
そこで、
既存の『年金システム』に対して、疑問提起しておいて何ですが、
今日は、既存の『年金システム』に繋がる話をしようと思います(笑)
タイトルに含まれる『鯨』ですが、皆さんは、何を示しているか分かりますか??
明るい方は、直ぐに『ピン!』と来ると思いますが、
『鯨』とは、『GPIF(年金積立金管理運用独立行政法人)』の事を指しています。
『GPIF(年金積立金管理運用独立行政法人)』
もしかしたら、この言葉自体を、
『What’s??』と思われる方もいらっしゃるかも知れませんね(笑)
2019年9月末時点、
総額『160兆円超』の巨額資産を運用している、
世界トップクラスの『公的年金資金:運用ファンド』の事です。
最近、
この名前が報道される頻度は減ってしまいましたが、
『第二次安倍政権』発足からの『株式市場』躍進は、
『GPIF』の存在無しには決して語ることが出来ません。
それまで、
『GPIF』は、『公的年金原資』を運用しているその性質上、
過度に『保守的』な運用スタイルしか取っていませんでした。
具体的には、
『債券』、特に、海外市場には目もくれずに『国債運用』が主でしたので、
『リスク』回避的ながらも、全く『増えない』運用を継続していたのです。
しかし、
それでは、『公的年金システム』維持の懸念が払拭出来ない事に加えて、
『安倍政権』の至上命題である『株式市場の底上げ』を実現出来ません。
そこで、
『GPIF』の運用ポートフォリオの大幅な変更を行うことで、
この両者を、同時に『解決(*)』する方向へと誘導したのです。
*上記『解決』という言葉を使用しましたが、一時的な対症療法であり、
『公的年金』が抱える根本的な課題は、デフォルトまで解決しません。
一時は、
その運用資金の過半数が『国内債券』に投資されていましたが、
この比率を順次縮小し、『海外債券』『国内・海外株式』比率を増やしていきます。
この際、
ご丁寧にも、首相御自ら、海外の機関投資家に営業活動を行なった為、
『GPIF』『日本人投資家』だけでなく、『海外投資家』までもが日本市場に殺到。
結果、
民主党政権下、日経平均株価が『7000円台』に低迷した頃から大反発を見せ、
昨日(11月8日)終値では『2万3,391.87円』を記録するまでになります。
要は、完全なる『自作自演』なのです。
この『日本市場』の堅調な成長(?)を受けることで、
2019年度第二四半期も、GPIFの運用資産は『1兆8058億円』のプラス。
その総額も、
『161兆7622億円』を記録するまでになり、
この数字は、「過去3番目』に大きな値にまで膨らみ続けています。
この報道だけ見れば、
『年金原資』は、運用により堅調に『増加』し続けている為、
日本の『公的年金制度』も、持続可能性が出てきているように思えますよね??
しかし、
物事はそれほど『単純』ではなく、ここに来て『GPIF』は、
四半期毎の『資産別保有額』『構成割合』『収益額』の公表を辞めると発表したのです。
表向きには、
前述の通り、『(超)巨額資産』を運用する世界トップファンドの為、
その運用方針を短期的に開示し続けると、『市場』へ影響を与える可能性があるという事。
確かに、この説明は『一理』あります。
しかし、
いつも通り『持論』を展開させて頂くと、定期的な『公表』を辞めるという事は、
『株式市場』の運用比率の変更を、市場参加者(投資家)に悟られたくないという事。
『GPIF』自身、
ここまで、自己資金投入という形で『自作自演』で作り出した『株高』ですが、
この『底上げ手法』で、未来永劫、『日本市場』が維持継続できる訳有りません。
つまり、
どこかのタイミングで、再び、安定的な『債券運用』に戻る必要がありますが、
『GPIF』が抜け出すことがバレると、『日本市場』は一気に暴落してしまいます。
そこで、
『定期的なポートフォリオ開示を辞める』ことで、その『動き』を見え難くし、
実際に、『債券運用』にシフトしていく時期を探っていこうとしているのです。
この辺り、
以前、公式ブログでもご紹介させて頂きましたが、
『日本国債』の最大の担い手になっている日銀が、
保有する『日本国債』の市場放出策を探ることと似ていますね。
両者とも、
『政府』が市場介入する形で作り上げてきた『虚像』ですが、
ここまで形成された『歪さ』を解消する際には、当然ながら『痛み』が伴います。
『GPIF』に話を戻すと、
『自作自演』にて大きく成長し続けてきた『鯨』は、その『巨大さ』故、
皮肉にも、自らの『動き』が『致命傷』になり得る可能性を秘めています。
『鯨』は、このまま生き延びることが出来るのか??
日本国民の『年金原資』が掛かっているその運用ですので、
無関心にならず、継続して『ウォッチ』していく必要があると考えます。
次回の『日本市場』暴落のタイミングの影には、『鯨』の動きがあるかも知れません。
『金融リテラシーを高めて、具体的に資産形成をしたい!』という方に最適なセミナーを、
今月は、大阪・梅田11月27日(水)、神戸・三ノ宮11月28日(木)の日程で開催します。
——————————————————————–
■2019年11月27日(水)開催!将来のお金の不安が2時間で消えるセミナーin大阪・梅田■
****セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください****
■2019年11月28日(木)開催!将来のお金の不安が2時間で消えるセミナーin神戸・三ノ宮■
****セミナーご案内ページはこちらをクリックください****
——————————————————————–
『具体的なアクション』を起こすことでのみ、
人生は、本当に好転していくものだと思います。
ぜひ勇気を持って、新たな一歩を踏み出してみてください。
皆さんに、直接お会い出来るのを楽しみにしております。
セミナーを受講する間でもなく、
『今すぐ、具体的に資産形成をスタートしたい!』という方は、
ぜひ勇気を持って『お金のセッション』を受講してみてください。
——————————————————————–
****プライベートセッションご案内はこちらをクリック****
****『お金のセッション』ご予約はこちらをクリック****
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